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Will the Liberals jump early?

Citing Stephen Harper’s craftiness, the president of the federal Liberal party, Mike Eizenga, suggested that the Liberals making plans for a fall election by preparing for a hasty early vote should the writ be dropped.

Some Tories figure that the Liberals are running scared, I presume after Harper has at least proven politically competent to the Canadian people (should there have been any doubt). In my mind the more likely reason is that the recent game of chicken over Rona Ambrose has the Liberals reconsidering the idiocy of spending an entire year looking for a leader. Bill Graham has tried to talk a good game, but everyone knows that his hands are tied and with every speech he seems even more pathetic – not even his own party seems to be paying attention anymore.

With the BQ scared and faltering in Quebec and the Liberals staring at their bound wrists, the NDP has stepped up and proven to be a real opposition to the Tories, the only real opposition. This is every bit as dangerous to the left side of the Liberal party as the Tories are to the right, and they can ill afford losing any more credibility. Jack Layton’s performance the last few months may well be as much a factor in an early leadership convention as an actual election call.

Kinsella is right, a new leader will revive the party’s spirits and free them to be able to challenge the Tories when challenge is required. Whether the new leader resonates with the Canadian voter is a different question, one that only time and an election or two will answer. The big question for me is not when the Liberals choose their leader or even who they choose, but how they react to the polls after the leadership convention.

I’m willing to bet that the convention “bump” they receive will be smaller than they hope for and will not last as long as they like; the stink of their performance this parliamentary session is going to take a little while to wash off.

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