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Lebanon musings and WWIII

I found a couple of interesting articles by Jim Muir, a BBC correspondant who’s been reporting on mid-East issues forever. Read and enjoy.

Part 1: History repeats with a vengeance

Part 2 – Washington risks a wider conflict

Things to note:

Muir doesn’t think that Israel can repeat it’s ‘success’ of the Lebanese invasion of 1982, which saw the PLO leadership evacuate Beirut and ship off to Tunis for a short time. This is because Hezbollah is home-grown (more or less), and reportedly enjoys support from the majority Lebanese Shia population. That’s not to say that all Lebanese Shia support Hezbollah, but that enough of the Shia population supports them to keep them going. It is entirely possible that Hezbollah’s support base could grow within Lebanon, as it is apparantly growing outside of Lebanon. They won’t be boarding boats for Tunis any time soon.

He also doesn’t think that the UN or any other group (NATO?) would be successful in containing Hezbollah even if the IDF is successful in permanently driving out all civilians from southern Lebanon creating a buffer zone in southern Lebanon. In his words, what nation will be successful in containing Hezbollah where Israel has failed? Sounds like a recipe for a ground troop meat grinder, even if those unfortunate troops are wearing blue helmets.

Finally, as we can all plainly see, the wider Arab world is not happy with the USA over their carte blanche approach to Israel, given the huge civilian toll exacted this month in Lebanon. Their one-sided approach to diplomacy in the region will probably completely ignore the ongoing IDF operation in Gaza, which fueled Hezbollah’s recent actions in the first place. Even if a diplomatic agreement includes a pullback from Gaza (which I consider unlikely), it will certainly ignore the root cause of the violence in the region: the continued occupation of the Palestinian territories and the unabated expansion of settlements in the West Bank.

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3 thoughts on “Lebanon musings and WWIII

  1. How sad it is that you’ve bought that Islamist POV that it’s all about the Palestinians. These people don’t give a shit about them.

    To the Islamists, they’re an excuse to propogate their hatred of the Jewish state. If the day came when there was peace b/w Israel & Palestine, then these scumbags will find something else to bitch about & i’m sure you’ll buy into it hook, link & sinker.

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  2. Mike,
    First off, shove you can shove your ad hominem verbiage up your ass, it ain’t welcome here. If you want to discuss ideas presented in the posts and comments, your welcome to do so, but if you can’t do it without attacking the commentator or poster, you can fuck off. There are lots of places for that kind of garbage, but not here.

    Now, to your comments. I think Briguy was writing about Lebanon, not Palestine, so the feelings between Hezbollah and the Palestinian cause are not really germaine to the post.

    I am not prepared to comment on the content of the two linked articles as I’ve only read them quickly, but Briguy’s point is, I think, that while Hezbollah maintains popular support in the region, there is no way an outside agency, government, or army is going to eliminate it.

    This dovetails with some of the other posts we’ve written here and that I’ve seen elsewhere that any real solution has to be non-military. Strengthening Lebanon’s government to be better able to provide stability inside its own borders is the first step – physical security is the first step for economic recovery and economic recovery is the real answer – people that have jobs and hope will ignore the “hope” offered by organizations like Hezbollah.

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  3. Give me a break McGuire. Do you really think that a military occupation has no impact on the violence in the region? That Hamas and Hezbollah could exist without the weekly civilian deaths supplied by the IDF?

    I will ask some questions. How would you react if Canada were under military rule (domestic or foreign), and your property and possessions could be confiscated at a whim? If you were always afraid to go outside because some kid with a machine gun might suddenly decide that you were a threat and riddle you full of bullets? If your extended family was suddenly cut in half by a bomb that was part of a “measured response” or a “surgical strike”? I’m guessing that you would not react with a great deal of understanding nor restraint. You might even become ripe for the sort of revenge/brainwashing that Hamas or Hezbollah require of their recruits/victims.

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