Today’s announcement that Peter MacKay is not going to run for his seat in Parliament this fall has me thinking that maybe this is a sign that Stephen Harper is losing control of his party finally. Some months ago when John Baird announced that he was stepping down to spend more time with his corporations, in discussion with friends we hypothesized that maybe that there would be a “leave now or you’re in for the long run” date stamped on the caucus.
Five months before the anticipated election date has got to be later than Harper would have wanted a high-profile minister to depart?
Is this a “screw you” from MacKay to the guy that defeated him for the party leadership these many years ago? Is it MacKay realizing now that his re-election in the fall would be far from a sure thing with the Liberals polling super strongly in the Atlantic provinces and high-profile screw-ups involving helicopters and ACOA appointments still in the public eye? Has he seen John Baird cashing in and figures that he’s got a “best before” date stamped on his ass?
Blevkog 
I think it most likely that Flyboy figures he will get more bucks if he moves sooner rather than later. Re-election is not a certainty.
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During Ton Clement’s interview on The House he told Evan Solomon that ministers were required to tell Harper months ago if they didn’t plan to run in October. Without knowing of any background events that could have pissed off MacKay enough to publicly flip off Harper I can still see why someone in MacKay’s position would like to smash a couple of things on his way out the door. After being touted as the great hope of the Progressive Conservatives becoming a sock puppet for a hateful control freak has got be be grating after a couple of years and many of us would try to make some sort of exit statement. Maybe he does just figure that it’s time to go but my own view, based on his announcement’s timing is that MacKay is in a better position than most to know what the actually support for the Conservatives is, wanted no part of what could be a rout of the CPC and a possible loss of his own seat, and decided to avoid leaving on a low note while trusting in his chances to land on his feet. Although, I’ve lived in his riding and left it with the opinion that you could write “MacKay” on an old snow tire, roll it down North Provost street, and half the riding will vote for that “Firestone MacKay fella” based solely on name recognition. If I’m right and MacKay is trying to avoid being a known participant in a potential election disaster what does that say about the CPC’s chances in October.
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